XRP reserves drop to 2.61 billion as monthly buy signal emerges

XRP fell roughly 13% over the past month even as Binance reserves dropped to 2.61 billion tokens, the lowest since February.

CryptoQuant data published July 15 shows Binance's XRP reserves stabilized near 2.61 billion tokens at the start of the month, marking the lowest exchange balance since February 2026. The declining supply suggests holders are moving tokens to self-custody or cold storage, reducing the pool available for immediate sale. Exchange reserve data is a closely watched metric in crypto markets, as lower supply on exchanges typically reduces selling pressure and can precede price appreciation.

The reserve drawdown coincides with a monthly buy signal on XRP's price chart, a technical pattern that has historically preceded recovery rallies. XRP Ledger tagged transactions rose 28.6% over the same period, according to on-chain data, reflecting increased application activity on the network. The jump in tagged transactions — which include payments, escrows and account settings — points to growing utility on the XRP Ledger as more applications become active. The network has seen a steady increase in developer activity and new project launches over the past quarter.

If demand holds steady, the shrinking exchange supply could trigger a supply squeeze that pushes XRP higher. The setup faces headwinds from a broader crypto market in deleveraging mode. FalconX's Q2 analysis described a "sustained deleveraging phase" across the sector, with open interest and leverage ratios declining across major tokens. The prime broker's report noted that institutional flows have turned risk-off, with stablecoin dominance rising as traders reduce exposure.

XRP demand is also weakening across spot ETFs, futures positioning and on-chain activity, per market data, creating a tug-of-war between the bullish supply setup and bearish demand signals. The June CPI print pulled rate hike odds from 43% to 13%, adding macro uncertainty to the crypto outlook. Analysts are now watching the September FOMC meeting for further cues on positioning.

For XRP, the combination of declining exchange reserves and rising network activity presents a contrarian setup — one where supply dynamics suggest a potential floor, even as broader market conditions remain challenging. The monthly buy signal adds a technical layer to the narrative, though sustained price recovery will likely require a broader shift in macro conditions and crypto market sentiment. The next key level for XRP will depend on whether the supply squeeze narrative can overcome the deleveraging headwinds in the weeks ahead.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.