Bitcoin's 51% drawdown from its October peak is the mildest correction in history, but ETF outflows and on-chain signals suggest a cycle bottom may be near.
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Bitcoin falls 50% from peak as history points to cycle bottom
Bitcoin traded at $62,000 on July 14, roughly 51% below its all-time high of $126,080 from October, extending what Bitwise Asset Management calls a nine-month "crypto winter" — the longest downturn since the 2022 bear market.
"The market is quoting bear-market prices on an industry that is twice the size it was at the last cycle's bottom," Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, said in the firm's Q3 2026 Crypto Market Review.
Bitcoin fell 13.4% in the second quarter and is down 32.9% year to date, the shallowest drawdown among major large-cap tokens. Ethereum slid 46.9%, Solana dropped 40.6% and Cardano lost 56.5% over the same period, according to Bitwise. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETPs recorded $4.9 billion in net outflows in Q2, their worst quarter since launching in January 2024.
The 51% peak-to-trough decline compares with a 77% drawdown in 2022, 84% in 2018 and 86% in 2014. Exchange-traded funds now hold roughly 6% of all Bitcoin in circulation, and public companies have accumulated 1.28 million BTC, equal to 6.11% of the 21 million supply cap. Spot ETPs and corporate treasuries have together bought roughly 3.6 times the Bitcoin mined since ETFs debuted, according to Bitwise.
The two-month stochastic relative strength index on Bitcoin registered 4.81 as of July 14, deep inside the oversold zone below 30 for the first time in three years. In prior cycles, every time the 2M Stoch RSI had a bullish cross and dropped to zero, Bitcoin put in a cycle bottom — in 2014, 2018 and 2022, according to pseudonymous trader Max Crypto.
"Every time the 2M Stoch RSI had a bullish cross and dropped to 0, BTC bottomed," Max Crypto wrote on X. "This happened in 2014, 2018, and 2022, and it will happen again."
The $4.9 billion in Q2 spot ETP outflows marked a sharp reversal from the record inflows that defined Bitcoin's institutional era in late 2024 and early 2025. Investment advisors hold about 43% of professionally owned ETP shares and hedge fund managers another 28%, with Jane Street and Millennium Management the largest reported holders, per Bitwise.
Public company bitcoin treasuries grew 11.3% quarter over quarter to 1.28 million BTC, even as the number of firms holding bitcoin slipped by three to 184. Strategy remains the largest corporate holder at 846,842 BTC, though it sold $218 million worth of bitcoin late in the quarter — its first sale since 2022 — to fund dividend obligations.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Bitcoin Has Fallen 50% From Its Peak. History Points to What Comes Next.[2] Crypto May Be Approaching A Cycle Bottom: 2 High-Upside Picks For 2026[3] Bitcoin bear market will bottom when two-month RSI metric hits zero, trader predicts[4] Crypto News Today: Bitcoin Outflows, Chainlink Wallet Growth, Bitmine Acquired $49 Million Worth of ETH[5] Bitwise Sees a Bottom in Bitcoin’s Worst Vibes Yet: ‘Darkest Before the Dawn’
