Bitcoin holds near $62,500 as traders weigh surprise Fed rate cut scenario

Bitcoin traded at $62,450 as of 09:00 UTC Tuesday, up 0.3% in 24 hours, as traders positioned for a potential Fed pivot that could upend rate expectations.

"So what if the next Fed move isn't a hike at all, but a cut," Nic Puckrin, a markets expert and former Goldman Sachs analyst, said in emailed comments. "That's a scenario the markets aren't pricing in, and it would be rocket fuel for investors' already unstoppable exuberance."

The market assigns roughly a 70% probability of a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting, according to fed funds futures. But new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's preferred inflation gauge — the trimmed mean PCE — sits at 2.4%, a level that could justify a dovish surprise. June CPI data released Tuesday showed headline consumer prices falling for the first time in six years, driven by lower energy costs, while core inflation held steady.

A rate cut would inject liquidity into risk assets at a moment when Bitcoin is testing resistance near $64,000. A decisive break above that level could open a path toward $65,000 to $68,000, while support at $60,000 to $61,200 remains the key floor if the Fed signals otherwise.

The Macro Calculus

Bitcoin's 86% correlation with the S&P 500 means the equity market's reaction to the CPI print and Warsh's congressional testimony this week will shape near-term price direction. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $197.4 million in net inflows during the week ending July 10, followed by a $239.2 million outflow on July 13, according to The Block — a pattern suggesting institutional investors remain cautious rather than directional.

"The hawks can stand down for now," Stephen Coltman, head of macro at 21shares, said, pointing to Fed Governor Christopher Waller's comments that explicitly cited Tuesday's CPI print as a key data point for a finely balanced rate decision later this month.

Geopolitical risks add another layer of uncertainty. Renewed US-Iran tensions pushed Brent crude above $79 per barrel, reviving inflation concerns that could complicate the Fed's decision. Higher oil costs tend to weigh on risk assets, though Bitcoin has held above $62,000 despite the crude spike.

On-Chain Signals and the $60,000 Floor

Long-term holders accumulated 5,912 BTC in two days, CryptoQuant data shows, showing conviction even as the market digests a US government wallet transfer of roughly $8.8 million in Bitcoin to Coinbase Prime. Blockchain tracker Arkham flagged the movement, which originated from a cluster linked to earlier seizures — though custody consolidation, rather than an imminent sale, could explain the transfer.

Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, added $450 million to its USD reserves, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 843,775 BTC. The company's continued accumulation at current levels reinforces the $60,000 zone as a structural floor.

Bitcoin's True Market Mean sits near $76,600, with the short-term holder cost basis around $72,200 — both well above spot price, indicating that a significant portion of recent buyers are underwater. Long-term holder loss realization recently accounted for 43% of total realized value, with daily losses peaking near $280 million.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong posted a poll on X asking whether "the bottom is in" for Bitcoin, drawing more than 22,000 votes. Slightly more than half of respondents voted no, reflecting the cautious sentiment that has kept Bitcoin range-bound between $60,000 and $65,000 for much of July.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.