Bitcoin stalls at $81,000 as 50-week moving average caps 24% rally

Bitcoin's 24 percent weekly surge has stalled at a narrow $82,000–$83,000 confirmation band that will determine whether the move is a relief rally or a new cyclical uptrend.

Bitcoin rose 24 percent in the week ending Aug. 23, its largest weekly gain since 2023, peaking at $81,265 on Aug. 25 before retracing to $78,500, down 2 percent from the weekly high as of Aug. 26.

CryptoQuant's Bull Score jumped from 30 to 80 in a single week, the highest reading since Oct. 6, 2025, with eight of ten components in bullish territory, the analytics firm said.

Spot and futures demand are expanding simultaneously for the first time since October 2025, and spot demand is growing at its fastest monthly rate since December 2025. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded seven consecutive days of net inflows, accumulating $3.03 billion in August, with $1.92 billion arriving in the week ending Aug. 21.

The confirmation threshold sits at $82,000–$83,000, where the 365-day moving average and the May 2026 high of $82,814 converge. A weekly close above that band opens the path toward the $100,000–$125,000 year-end targets from Bernstein and Standard Chartered; rejection keeps the asset consolidating between $76,000 and $78,000.

Bull Score Hits 80, but $83,000 Weekly Close Still Pending

CryptoQuant's framework requires a weekly close above the 365-day moving average, currently near $83,000, to formally confirm a regime change. The Bull Score measures breadth and direction, but the price level that structurally confirms the move sits about 5 percent above spot. The rejection near $81,000 coincides with the 50-week moving average, which rested near $81,085 at the time of the test. Combined with the May 2026 high of $82,814, this forms a resistance zone between $81,000 and $83,000 rather than a single barrier. Galaxy Research data shows that in 11 of 13 prior instances tied to the end of Bitcoin bear markets, the floor had already formed when the asset recovered the 50-week moving average.

$3.03 Billion in August ETF Inflows Meet a Weakening Dollar

The rally followed the Aug. 19 US Treasury announcement doubling the maximum size of long-term bond buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation, effective Sept. 9 through early November. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated the buybacks could be financed from the Treasury's roughly $1 trillion cash account at the Federal Reserve. The DXY index fell to 98.94 on Aug. 20, near a three-month low, reactivating the rotation toward Bitcoin and gold as hedges against fiat devaluation. BlackRock's IBIT led ETF flows with about $1.33 billion over five consecutive days, though cumulative net inflows for 2026 remain negative by $2.26 billion after June's $4.51 billion and May's $2.43 billion in outflows.

Three short-term risk metrics have activated during the rally. The trader unrealized profit margin reached 20.5 percent, its highest level since June 2025. Whales realized a record $614 million in profits on Aug. 20. Exchange inflows for BTC, ETH, and XRP have increased, suggesting potential selling pressure. The 14-day RSI on the daily chart reached 83.63, well above the overbought threshold of 70, while the 14-day ATR climbed to about $2,260 from near $1,200 earlier in August. Open interest in futures has fallen to the lowest point in nearly five months, with short-covering driving much of the rebound. Bernstein projects Bitcoin reaching $125,000 by the end of 2026, with a base case of $150,000 by mid-2027 and $300,000 at the 2029 cycle peak. Standard Chartered maintains a year-end 2026 target of $100,000. Former Coinbase Head of Institutional Research David Duong projects Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 before the end of 2026.

The bullish bias remains active, but its confirmation has narrowed to a $2,000–$3,000 band. A weekly close above $83,000 confirms the regime change and opens the path toward the $100,000–$125,000 institutional targets. Failure to close above the zone keeps the asset consolidating within $76,000–$78,000, with downside risk toward $71,800 if support breaks.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.