Key Takeaways:
- Six crypto and prediction market firms expected at Aug. 19 White House meeting.
- CLARITY Act faces Sept. 15 Senate cloture vote requiring 60 votes.
- Polymarket traders price 19% chance of 2026 passage, down from 82% peak.
Key Takeaways:

Executives from Coinbase, Ripple, a16z, Chainlink, Paradigm and Kalshi are expected at an Aug. 19 White House meeting, days before a Sept. 15 Senate vote on the CLARITY Act that needs 60 votes to advance.
Semafor reporter Eleanor Mueller said the executives were expected to attend, citing people familiar with the plans, with President Donald Trump, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig and SEC Chairman Paul Atkins also expected to participate. Patrick Witt, executive director of the president's council of advisers for digital assets, is also slated to attend.
The CLARITY Act would place spot markets for qualifying digital commodities under CFTC oversight while keeping crypto assets classified as securities within SEC authority. The House approved its version in July 2025 by a 294-134 vote, and the Senate Banking Committee advanced the legislation in May 2026 by a 15-9 vote.
The procedural vote would not pass the bill but would allow the Senate to begin formal consideration, after which lawmakers could debate, amend and hold a separate vote on final passage. At least 60 senators must support cloture, making Democratic votes necessary even if most Republicans back the measure.
For Coinbase and Ripple, the meeting comes before a scheduled Senate test for legislation that could decide how the two main U.S. market regulators divide responsibility for digital assets. A token's regulatory status can determine where it may trade, which disclosures apply, and whether a platform must register with the SEC or comply with CFTC market rules.
Coinbase has supported the legislation while raising concerns about provisions governing stablecoin rewards and decentralized finance. In an Aug. 7 statement, CEO Brian Armstrong called the Senate delay disappointing but said adoption would continue regardless of Congress' timetable. "The momentum behind this technology keeps growing with or without a congressional calendar," Armstrong said.
Garlinghouse has also backed the bill during negotiations. Ripple and Coinbase were part of a coalition of more than 120 companies that urged lawmakers to advance the proposal in April. Andreessen Horowitz has supported the legislation, while Chainlink works with financial companies on blockchain infrastructure. Paradigm invests in crypto businesses and is a backer of Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market operator.
Prediction markets have continued to price in a low chance that the CLARITY Act will become law in 2026, even as the Senate prepares for its September procedural vote. Polymarket traders placed the probability at 19%, with $7.04 million in trading volume. On Aug. 14, the contract briefly showed a 21% probability, rising from 17% one day earlier. Another recent reading placed the chance at 16%, down from an 82% peak in February.
Galaxy Research reportedly assigned a 10% chance of passage during 2026, citing unresolved policy disputes and the limited number of Senate working days before the midterm election recess. A separate Kalshi contract provided a more favorable reading for an earlier procedural event, with traders assigning an 88% probability that the Senate would vote on the legislation before Oct. 1, with about $1.23 million traded.
People involved in the planning have described the White House event as a kickoff for the CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee's first meeting, scheduled for Aug. 20 in Washington. The three-hour session will run from 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern time, with panels covering crypto regulation, artificial intelligence in trading, and prediction markets.
The advisory committee will not vote on a proposed crypto rule, and its recommendations do not automatically become CFTC policy. Separately, the SEC canceled an Aug. 14 open meeting that had been scheduled to consider a proposed offering framework for certain crypto-related investment contracts.
The meeting comes as the crypto industry weighs whether Congress or the regulators will set the terms of U.S. market structure. Even if the CLARITY Act stalls, Galaxy's Alex Thorn said the SEC could publish the texts of Reg Crypto and the Innovation Exemption in the coming weeks, a reminder that the industry faces a positive regulatory environment regardless of the bill's fate.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.