Key Takeaways:
- SBUX closed at $103.61, just 4.8% below its 52-week high of $108.88
- Global comparable-store sales rose 6%, with North America up more than 7%
- U.S. Rewards membership hit a record 35.6 million active members
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Starbucks nears 52-week high after 23% rally on turnaround
Starbucks Corp. rose 23.1% year to date to $103.61, just 4.8% below its 52-week high of $108.88, as a turnaround strategy drove the strongest customer traffic in three years.
"Customer traffic reached its strongest level in three years, indicating that operational improvements are encouraging consumers to visit more frequently," Starbucks management said in its fiscal second-quarter earnings release.
Global comparable-store sales rose 6%, driven by more than 7% growth in North America and transaction gains across all dayparts. U.S. Rewards membership reached a record 35.6 million, with the new 60-star redemption option becoming the most popular reward. New beverage launches, including premium Matcha drinks and energy refreshers, expanded afternoon sales. The company also reported positive comparable sales across all 10 of its largest international markets for the first time in nine quarters, with China posting another quarter of transaction-led growth.
The rally has pushed SBUX's forward price-to-sales ratio to 2.98 times, below McDonald's Corp.'s 6.85 times and Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.'s 3.23 times, suggesting room for further gains if execution holds. However, management cautioned that higher fuel prices and broader economic pressures could weigh on consumer spending, while coffee inflation and tariffs continue to pressure margins. The company reaffirmed plans to open 600 to 650 net new stores globally in fiscal 2026.
The "Back to Starbucks" strategy has been supported by the rollout of the Green Apron Service model, which focuses on better staffing, faster service and improved customer experience. Starbucks reported rising customer satisfaction scores while maintaining service speed despite handling higher transaction volumes. The company is also introducing scheduled mobile order pickup, which should improve convenience and throughput.
The recently completed partnership with Boyu Capital positions Starbucks China for long-term expansion while reducing capital intensity. Management expects the new licensing structure to improve profitability and support faster expansion across more than 1,500 Chinese county-level cities over the next three years.
Despite the encouraging progress, several risks could temper the stock's momentum. Product and distribution costs remain elevated due to coffee inflation, tariffs and innovation-related expenses. While Starbucks expects these headwinds to ease in the second half of fiscal 2026, any rebound in commodity prices or prolonged tariff impacts could pressure profitability. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SBUX's fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings per share moved up in the last 60 days, reflected in upward estimate revisions by analysts.
SBUX has outperformed major industry peers this year, including McDonald's, Chipotle and Yum! Brands Inc., which have gained less than 5% over the same period. The broader consumer discretionary sector has risen about 8% in 2026, making Starbucks' 23.1% gain more than double the sector average.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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