Key Takeaways:
US shipments rose 26.5 percent to 701.3 million francs, the third straight month of double-digit growth for the largest export market.
Swiss watch exports climbed 9.6 percent to 2.63 billion francs in July, with a 26.5 percent surge in US shipments offsetting a deepening slump in China and renewed weakness across the Middle East. The US accounted for 701.3 million francs, or 26.7 percent of all Swiss watch exports during the month, according to data released Thursday by the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH).
"Swiss watch demand remains on track for a gradual recovery, with continued strength at the high end supported by equity market wealth creation and the positive backdrop of the 2026 FIFA World Cup," said Luca Solca, analyst at Bernstein.
The July performance pushed cumulative exports for the first seven months of 2026 into positive territory, with year-to-date shipments up 0.9 percent. Growth was broad-based across product categories: exports of precious-metal watches rose 3.7 percent by value, steel watches gained 9 percent, and bimetallic gold-and-steel models climbed 23.8 percent. The industry shipped roughly 1.5 million wristwatches, about 97,000 more than in July 2025.
The strongest gains came from higher-priced timepieces. Watches with export prices above 3,000 francs rose 12 percent by value, while the 200-500 franc segment jumped 26.1 percent — a recovery after four years of decline, according to the FH. Analysts credited the Swatch x Audemars Piguet Royal Pop collaboration, which triggered long queues and chaotic scenes at stores when it launched in May, for driving momentum in that price bracket. The 500-3,000 franc category fell 3.9 percent.
The US delivered its third consecutive month of double-digit growth, cementing its position as the primary engine of Swiss watch exports. The market's resilience comes even as it compares against exceptionally high sales figures from the same period last year, when tariff-related front-loading inflated shipments. In April, US-bound exports fell 56 percent against the prior year's tariff-beating shipments, according to FH data — the sharpest monthly drop in recent memory.
European exports rose 12.4 percent, driven mainly by an 11.6 percent increase in Germany. France recorded a 104.6 percent jump, though analysts cautioned the figure likely overstates underlying demand. RBC Capital Markets attributed the surge to France's role as a logistics hub, noting many brands ship to France before re-exporting to other regions. The UK, which accounts for 6.1 percent of Swiss watch exports, rose 9.5 percent.
Asia painted a mixed picture. Hong Kong and Singapore posted modest gains of 0.5 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively, while Japan fell 3.7 percent. China dropped 18.5 percent, extending a prolonged downturn in the world's second-largest luxury market. The United Arab Emirates declined 3.7 percent after four months of sequential improvements, which Citi analysts Thomas Chauvet and Alberto Cecchetto attributed to ongoing geopolitical disruption in the Middle East — a region that accounts for roughly 10 percent of Swiss watch exports.
The data suggests the Swiss watch industry's recovery is increasingly dependent on one market. The US now represents more than a quarter of all Swiss watch exports, up from roughly 20 percent before the pandemic-era demand boom. That concentration carries risk: if US consumer spending cools or tariffs on Swiss goods return, the industry has limited offsetting growth engines — China remains in contraction and the Middle East is constrained by conflict.
For luxury groups with watchmaking exposure — Swatch Group, Richemont, and LVMH — the July data provides a modest tailwind, particularly for brands positioned in the high-end segment above 3,000 francs. The 200-500 franc recovery, driven by the Royal Pop collaboration, also suggests the entry-luxury segment can be revived with the right product. Swatch Group's first-half results, released earlier this month, showed improving sales but shrinking net profits, reflecting the uneven recovery across price segments.
The next FH monthly release, due in September, will show whether US momentum extends into the back half of the year. Bernstein's Solca said eastern Asia's recovery, while uneven, remains broadly on the right trajectory — a view that will be tested as China's luxury demand continues to lag.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
