Trump cancels Iran strike, Israel blindsided for 5 hours as deal emerges

Trump's decision to cancel a planned strike on Iran reached Israeli leaders through social media, not diplomatic channels, exposing a five-hour coordination gap.

Trump's abrupt cancellation of a planned Iran strike, announced on Truth Social before Israeli officials were briefed, exposed a five-hour coordination breakdown between Washington and Jerusalem as the president pursues a Hormuz reopening deal.

"For several hours, we were in a complete information vacuum and uncertainty — President Trump put us in the fog," a senior Israeli official said, describing how senior military officers learned of the development through Trump's personal Truth Social posts.

The reversal follows Trump's Saturday evening post claiming Mideast allies had reached the parameters of a deal to end the five-month war, including the "Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT" and an end to Iran's nuclear threat. Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz were among those who learned of the decision through the post, with military and diplomatic officials subsequently contacting US counterparts to confirm the reversal.

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 21 percent of global oil trade, and the tentative framework — which would also end the US naval blockade on Iran and allow Tehran to export oil — could ease crude supply concerns. Yet Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman raised concerns in a Saturday call with Trump about potential Iranian retaliation on Gulf energy infrastructure if talks collapse, keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices.

The deal framework, brokered through regional mediation, calls for the US and Iran to return to negotiations while Iran halts attacks across the region, including by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq on Gulf countries and Jordan. Trump said Israel is joining his commitment to implement the ceasefire, though Israel has not publicly commented on the announcement.

Iran's defense minister said on X that the country was "neither surprised nor passive" following Trump's announcement, while Iranian officials have warned that any new attack would trigger retaliatory strikes on key infrastructure in Israel and several Gulf countries. The war, which began Feb. 28 when the US and Israel attacked Iran, has seen Tehran repeatedly target vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz without authorization.

Market Implications of a Fragile Truce

The last time Washington signaled potential de-escalation with Iran, crude benchmarks retreated sharply before rebounding as negotiations collapsed. Trump has announced halts to strikes on Iran on several occasions since February, only for fighting to resume. Brent crude and WTI futures remain sensitive to any breakdown in the tentative framework, while gold and the dollar could see renewed safe-haven demand if talks stall.

The communication breakdown between the US and Israel adds another layer of uncertainty. Israel has raised "serious security concerns" with the White House about a separate disarmament deal with Hamas in Gaza, and Israeli strikes in the enclave have intensified, with at least 12 people killed overnight through Sunday afternoon. The coordination gap on the Iran strike raises questions about how closely aligned Washington and Jerusalem remain on military strategy.

If the deal framework holds, oil prices could face downward pressure as supply concerns ease and the naval blockade lifts. If talks collapse, the risk of Iranian retaliation on Gulf energy infrastructure — a concern MBS raised directly with Trump — could push crude higher and trigger a broader flight to safety across gold, the dollar, and defense equities.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.