Goldman Sachs initiated Buy coverage on Zhongji Innolight's Hong Kong listing with a HKD3,267 target and resumed Buy on its A-shares at RMB2,645, sending the stock up 11.53 percent to HKD1,122 on turnover of HKD2.172 billion. The bank raised 2026 and 2027 profit forecasts above consensus, citing faster-than-expected 800G and 1.6T optical module adoption driven by OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra.
Zhongji Innolight shares jumped 11.53 percent to HKD1,122 after Goldman Sachs initiated Buy coverage on the optical module maker with a HKD3,267 target price for its Hong Kong listing.
The initiation rests on a demand-curve shift driven by OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, released last week and rolled out to paid users over the weekend. "This is the model the AI bull market has been waiting for," the head of Goldman's trading desk said, arguing the release moves industry focus from cost reduction to capability gains and pushes the computing-power demand curve outward again.
Goldman initiated Buy on the H-shares (03308.HK) at HKD3,267 and resumed Buy on the A-shares (300308.SZ) at RMB2,645, implying 224.9 percent upside from the 814 yuan reference price cited in the report. The bank raised its 2026 and 2027 net profit forecasts for Zhongji Innolight above market consensus. Trading was heavy: turnover reached HKD2.172 billion on 1.99 million shares, with short selling at 12.328 percent, pointing to active institutional repositioning around the call.
The target implies the stock nearly triples, a path Goldman ties to quarterly shipment figures as 800G and 1.6T products ramp faster than the market expected. The bank projects global optical module revenue growing from $37.6 billion in 2025 to $148.5 billion in 2028, with 800G-and-above shipments surging from about $45 billion in 2026 to $130 billion in 2028.
Goldman's thesis centers on generational transitions in AI accelerators. While Nvidia's GB200 series remains dominated by 400G and 800G optical solutions, the GB300 shifts toward 800G and 1.6T, and the Rubin and Rubin Ultra generations push configurations to 1.6T and 3.2T. Product iterations are arriving faster than the market anticipated, steepening the shipment forecast slope. On the company's books, revenue is projected to rise from RMB38.2 billion in 2025 to RMB417.8 billion in 2028, net profit from RMB10.8 billion to RMB137.1 billion, and gross margin from 42 percent to near 50 percent.
Silicon photonics penetration is a separate highlight, climbing from roughly 6 percent in 2025 to 18 percent in 2028, and running higher in high-speed products at about 60 percent for 800G and 80 percent for 1.6T and 3.2T. The shift compresses laser content: laser value in a 1.6T silicon photonics module is about $15 to $20, versus around $160 for EML solutions. Beyond pluggable modules, Goldman estimates revenue from optical engines, NPO, CPO, FAU, ELS and optical switches will grow from negligible levels in 2026 to RMB70.8 billion in 2028, about 17 percent of total revenue, and judges there is still room for CPO without cannibalizing pluggable sales.
The call rippled across the sector. Zhongji Innolight's A-shares rose 8.12 percent, while peers Eoptolink, Tfc Optical Communication and Taichenguang opened about 3 percent higher and optical chip maker Yuanjie Technology gained 2.25 percent. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had climbed more than 3 percent on Friday, with Coherent up 6 percent and Marvell Technology up 7 percent, before U.S. markets closed Monday for Labor Day.
The Buy rating signals Goldman expects AI-driven optical demand to keep accelerating through the product cycle. Investors will watch Zhongji Innolight's quarterly shipment disclosures, which the bank flags as the execution metric that determines whether the 224.9 percent upside is realized.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
